Hypothesis

A hypothesis is generally considered a research indicator. It is a tentative explanation of the research problem or a guess about the research outcome. The hypothesis is usually considered the principal instrument in research. It helps social scientists to suggest a theory that may explain and predict the events. The hypothesis is like a formal research question intends to resolve. The hypotheses in historical research are useful in explaining events, conditions, or phenomena of the period in question. Hypotheses are particularly necessary for studies where cause and effect relationships are to be discovered. The hypotheses for historical research may not be formal hypotheses to be tested. They are written as explicit statements that tentatively explain the occurrence of events and conditions. According to Borg, without hypotheses, historical research often becomes little more than an aimless gathering of facts.

Functions or Importance of Hypotheses

• Provides a clear focus to research
• Helps in selecting and collecting relevant facts
• Helps to explain the research problem
• Offers a temporary answer to the research question
• Provides a structure and operational directions to research
• Helps to suggest a theory that may explain and predict events
• Provides the framework for drawing conclusions

 The hypothesis can be of two types:

1. Explanatory hypothesis – this is especially used in finding outlaws or formulas acting in history
2. Descriptive hypothesis – this is used for making a complex mass of facts, that are isolated from one another

 Developing Working Hypotheses

After an extensive literature survey, the researcher should state in clear terms the working hypothesis or hypotheses. A working hypothesis can be framed through:

 a)     Review of similar studies in the area or of the studies on similar problems

 b)     Examination of available data and records

 c)      Discussions with colleagues and experts about the problem

 d)     Preliminary personal investigation of the research problem

Working hypotheses are more useful when stated in precise and clearly defined terms. Hypotheses act as a step toward research work. Thus, working hypotheses arise as a result of pre-thinking about the subject.

 Characteristics of hypothesis

 A hypothesis must possess the following characteristics:

• It should be clear and precise. If the hypothesis is not clear and precise, the inferences drawn on its basis cannot be taken as reliable.
• It should be limited in scope and must be specific. No vague terms should be used in the formulation of a hypothesis.
• It should be stated as far as possible in the most simple terms so that the same is easily understandable by all concerned.
• It should be consistent with the most known facts. It should not conflict with any law of nature which is known to be true.
• It should be empirically testable. It should be capable of being tested whether it is right or wrong.
• It should be conceptually clear. The concepts used in the hypothesis should be clearly defined
• It should describe one issue only. It can be framed either in descriptive or relational form.
• It should be related to available techniques and methods.
• It should not be contradictory.

 Testing/Validating Hypothesis

It is generally considered that at the end of the research, the researcher should test the hypothesis. A hypothesis, when empirically proved, helps us in testing an existing theory. This should be done with the empirical evidences analyzed and interpreted during the research. This testing of the hypothesis allows the researcher to verify existing knowledge, fact, or theory as to right or wrong. In other words, when a hypothesis is tested, it aimed to support or reject an existing theory or facts. It also explains the empirical conditions in which the theory is accepted or rejected. Each time a hypothesis is tested empirically, it tells us something about the phenomenon it is associated with. If the hypothesis is empirically supported, then our information about the phenomenon increases. Even if the hypothesis is refuted, the test tells us something about the phenomenon we did not know before. A hypothesis, after its testing, may highlight the positive and negative aspects of the existing social or legislative policy. In such a situation, the tested hypothesis helps us in formulating (or reformulating) a social policy. It may also suggest or hint at probable solutions to the existing social problem(s) and their implementation.